Hello, Beth.
I have a couple of thoughts with respect to color temperature in general, and your painting specifically.
I tend to generally have a different opinion about color temperature and distance. I think that the "rule of thumb" about warm and cool colors is mainly an atmospheric concept. (Here, I rely on both observation, as well as
"Carlson's Guide to Landscape Painting.") Atmospheric shift in color temperature is an optical construct, and it is reliable. In viewing a scene of long horizon, all colors are visible in the foreground. As objects recede into the middle ground, the yellows drop out first; as the vista continues to recede, the reds drop out next, and then you are ultimately left with the blues. Within this construct lie other optical rules: edges progressively soften with distance, as does saturation.
Most portraits employ a relatively short "depth of field". The color of the light source governs the color temperature of everything in both light and shadow. Once the temperature directive is acknowledged, I think that the larger color consideration is saturation, or color intensity. When the "depth of field" in a portrait (say, the distance between the feature closest to you, and the feature farthest from you) will rarely be more than three inches, I don't think it is in any way practical to rely upon "rules" that work best at distances of thousands of feet...i.e., the unobstructed landscape. The way to control the temperature directive is through saturation, value and edge management, rather than through a formula for temperature alone, which in this case doesn't apply.
Beth, with regard to your painting itself, let me begin by saying that I understand why you are drawn to this extremely compelling image. However, I would have to also say that it is one I would not consider as suitable source material for a painting. It is missing all the basics I would want to see (at least if it were my painting) at the minimum: good (or even reasonable) color information in either light or shadow, good (again, or even reasonable) information with respect to value, and a confusing silhouette. Compositional issues are usually resolvable up front, but the shape of the silhouette is very important. So as a result, I think you have given yourself a series of problems to overcome, that I know at least I would feel were insurmountable.
In this regard I always return to my simple way of looking at my canvas: this portrait stuff is difficult enough without my actually adding to it!
I hope this is helpful.