Hello Garth,
In case you are still working on this beautiful portrait I would like to add some thoughts about the reference.
The reason why the lower face is so light, and almost the same value as the cheeks and forehead, is that the sleeves are reflecting the light into the face.
But if you look at the sleeves they are all burned out, overexposed. If the light measuring had been right on them, then the reflections into the face would have been much lower in the area from the tip of the nose and down.
I will add your reference in a separated gray scale to prove my point.
Best Allan
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