Thank you Michael for starting this thread.
Your reference photo looks ideal to me and made me wonder about one thing. When squinting at the photo, the right side of the girls face disappears into one, entirely dark value, the same is true for Mike M. 3rd photo reference. These two images come across as stronger, with more dramatic impact and it seems that this high value differentiation (shadow vs. lit side) would allow for a more dramatic look as a portrait.
Furthermore in the 1st photo reference enough detail is observable in the shadows to even hint at color other than a dark void. Mike M.
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