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Copyright law stipulates that if a casual observer would feel that the copy was "substantially similar" to the original, then it is a copyright violation. It doesn't have to be an exact copy. There is no legal definition of "substantially similar" and case law examples widely vary in the judgements that have come down. Even if you change the name to McCaws, you could still be liable.
The publishers of the Marilyn cut-outs almost certainly bought specifically delineated rights to use that image from the copyright holder (who is probably Corbis media, a huge image archive here in Seattle).
I'm with Chris. It isn't worth the risk, in my mind.
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