Will,
Number two has a nice rhythmic sweep with the dark value tree on the right moving into the dark massing of the man's and the woman's jeans.
You are missing one of the values (...there are just too many uses for the word "value,"...) of doing the three massing studies. Your thumbnail sketch isn't in three values. You've designated what the values would be in the drawing, but haven't actually done the massing in the drawing. If you did as Chris does here
http://forum.portraitartist.com/show...?threadid=1870 , you can readily see what the painting will look like, and make the decisions.
The pine branches in the background would look fine if it were kept, the entire section, to three value massing, with the detail handled within that middle value scale. It would not work if it is as you've drawn, some the branches in a dark value and some in a middle value. It would be too much, and take away from the figures.
You also need to be very precise, even at this stage. This is when it is all happening! Are the faces of the subjects in the shadow a middle value? And their faces in the light a light value? What of her shirt? Is it light at the shoulders, and middle at her chest? Is the man's shirt light value, on his sleeve? Because you've made it a middle value in the sketch.
That is basically it, Will.
You've got, I think, a pretty good handle on the concept, but you are not using it to its full potential by precisely and simply determining where the three values will be massed, and accurately showing that information in your thumbnail.
One more thing, show no detail at this stage. No features, no pockets, folds, etc.
Again, see Chris's example. Just masses...big masses.
Peggy